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| Courtesy NASA |
Technology and science are advancing - new drugs, genetics, self-driving cars and air taxis, and 3D printing of metals and organs. What we don’t give enough thought to is the rate of this advancement. Knowledge and its application are growing not arithmetically, not geometrically, but exponentially. Just to be clear about what that means here are some examples.
Arithmetic: adding a number to itself sequentially, 2+2+2+2 = 8.
Geometric: multiplying a number by itself sequentially, 2x2x2x2 = 16.
Exponential: squaring a number sequentially; 2, 2 squared = 4, 4 squared = 16, 16 squared = 256.
And when AI reaches singularity, all bets are off as to the rate of technical advancement. The people in the know, the computer scientists and inventors close to this subject say the singularity is going to happen. Once AI reaches the equivalence of a human in intelligence, the graph for intelligence from that point on the chart literally points straight up. Within weeks, perhaps days, maybe even hours of reaching the intelligence of a human, AI could be a million times smarter than humans. These are the same people that said satellites will ring the globe, the internet is going to be a big thing, computers will be hand-held, and gravity waves and climate change are real.
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| Courtesy Tim Urban & Wait But Why. |
When this happens, will it be like the genie from Arabian Nights or the ultimate worse nightmare the human race has ever seen? Will it be the warm fuzzies or that cold, scaly feeling? I’m going for warm fuzzies. Why the optimism? I’m probably just a dumb fuck, but what better way of staving off boredom for a super-intelligence than by adopting seven billion troglodytes a million times dumber than you with social skills on the level of tribalism just to keep them from wiping themselves out. Besides, we’re quite dexterous and easily trained. Just kidding.
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| Courtesy Tim Urban & Wait But Why. |
On the flip side, this could be what happened to other civilizations. This is why there is no one else out there in the galaxy. They did not fall into the same combustion trap we did where the burning of fossil fuels blindsided us with its insidious carbon dioxide creep. No, their machines simply hit the singularity, and that’s it. No more civilization. In that case, where are the high IQ monsters that did them in? Skipping through time to sample past and future civilizations? Perhaps, when they hit a certain level of intelligence, they ascend to a higher plane, hopefully to reflect on the demise of their builders in never-ending remorse. Probably not.
Getting back to the optimistic view, what the singularity means is that every science-fiction-like thing you’ve ever read about could become true. Nuclear fusion; living in good health for centuries; space elevators on Earth, Moon, and Mars; cure for cancer; perfected nanotechnology, force fields, energy shields; weather on demand; artificial food indistinguishable from the real; maybe even teleportation, FTL drives, time travel, and the keys to neighboring dimensions could all become a reality.
But when? When will AI, generalized AI, not narrow AI (chess playing, car driving), be equal to the human mind? About 25 years.
Barring an errant asteroid or super volcano eruption, soon after that the planet will be bursting at the seams with people. Arcologies five miles high covering 10,000 square miles and holding a billion people will not be enough. The unlimited room, material, and energy of space will siphon humanity from a crowded Earth to the Moon, Mars, the asteroids, the moons of Jupiter, and fabricated habitats of enormous size and beauty. In the blink of a cosmic eye, mankind will become a spacefaring race running loose in the Milky Way Galaxy, albeit with an AI guidance counselor.
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| Courtesy NASA |
What can you do to plan for this? The main thing would be to make sure you make it to the big event, assuming you’re in the positive outcome camp. Floss, exercise, eat right, don’t smoke. Also, you should probably cozy up to someone working in AI. Keep an ear to the ground, so to speak, to keep tabs on progress. When it happens, be first in line for the longevity drugs, and you’re off to see the history of the rest of the universe … in person.
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