Wednesday, July 4, 2018

China’s Strategy for the Future Is Scary Smart


by Glen Hendrix

Long March 2. Long March 9 will be 4x bigger and deliver 18x the payload. Courtesy Wikimedial

When most Americans think of the Chinese, they think of an industrious, intelligent population. Smart enough and with enough inexpensive labor to make things good enough to sell cheap enough to claim market share and make money. The really hard stuff; the sophisticated electronics, avionics, bioprocesses, and software they obviously stole from us. And, ignoring the obvious moral questions, what does that say about their spy/hacking/computer/skills?

Americans forget the ancient Chinese invented gunpowder, paper, printing, kites, and umbrellas. Americans don't do history. Witness Afghanistan. We’ve certainly forgotten that the Chinese invented thorough testing of the people in charge of government before they are allowed to serve. Maybe we should steal that from them. 

What I’m trying to say is we don’t give the Chinese the credit they deserve when it comes to "the big picture" intellectual processes and strategic thinking. Also, Americans don't take into consideration the advantage the Chinese possess in having a central authority figure. Xi Jinping, aside from Vladimir Putin, is the closest thing to a king that exists in this modern era. As such, the country can react with astonishing speed and amazing focus to deal with such disparate problems as pollution and unwanted domestic public opinions. 


Paper or plastic? … If you said “paper”, read this. Plastic? Read this.



The democratic process in America, on the other hand, has sidetracked our progress in dealing with climate change, slowed down social equality, and created a lot of noise that hinders our march towards a smart, healthy population with very few poor and uneducated. That is because it is a process and has its ups and downs. We will get back on track. It just takes time.

In the meantime, China has announced its intentions to march into the future by putting an outpost on the Moon. That is why it is developing the Long March 9, a rocket that will put 140 metric tons into low earth orbit and 50 metric tons into trans-lunar orbit. This is the same capability as the Saturn V, the rocket that took U.S. astronauts to the Moon. How old hat, you say. Been there, done that. 

What you may not know is that China is also heavily invested in nuclear fusion technology with its Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak, EAST, at a large research facility at Dongpu Science Island in Anhui Province.

Also, helium-3 will make nuclear fusion much more efficient and eliminate nuclear waste and radiation. 

Also, the Moon is littered with helium-3. There is an estimated 1,100,000 metric tons trapped in lunar soil worth about 3 billion dollars per ton. 

Are you beginning to get the picture? I’ll spell it out for you anyway. The future of the planet depends on cheap, non-polluting energy of which fusion will be the world champ. It doesn’t matter who develops practical fusion, it will be done in the next few decades and licensed to anyone willing to pay the price. Having an established outpost on the Moon, China will be in the catbird’s seat to provide the budding fusion industry with what it needs most; helium-3. Three point three quadrillion dollars worth of it. If they are also the lucky ones to crack the fusion puzzle, they will be the undisputed uber energy czars of the twenty first century. 


Paper bags take 5 X the water to make and 7 X the fuel to transport than plastic bags  



Pretty smart strategic thinking about the future, huh? With that kind of economic leverage China would never have to sweat the possibility of a trade war again.  However, it is not too late for two (and probably more) to play this game. By the time fusion technology is powering toasters, everyone will be wise to what the Moon represents for a nascent fusion industry. Perhaps we'll see a stampede of corporate startups to rival the dot com era. In fact, the Chinese are already in talks with the European Space Agency to make it a bilateral effort to build an outpost. We'll see how that works out.

In the meantime, while our current materials technology precludes the building of a space elevator on Earth, it will work on the Moon. This would be an efficient way to haul helium-3, water, and regolith into orbit around the Moon. Helium-3 goes to Earth's fusion reactors, water goes to needy vessels exploring the Solar System, and regolith is building material for space habitats. Recently discovered lava tubes on the Moon could provide inexpensive radiation shielding to the people carrying out lunar exploration and exploitation. Whether they want it or not, things are looking towards the Chinese enjoying a lot of company on the Moon.


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