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Photo by Marcelo Novais on Unsplash
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Climate change does not seem apocalyptic to the people currently living through it. Although it is happening much faster than other climate changes in Earth’s history, our lives are too short to appreciate the extreme differences that will occur. For instance, a person in their 60s now is not experiencing weather all that different from when they were growing up. Yes, it may be hotter in the summer time, but there were hot days when they were kids. More storms and stronger storms occur but not so different that you could call it apocalyptic. Those really bad weather events from our past become inflated by our imagination over time and thus ameliorate our perception of how bad current events are.
What we currently call climate change will happen over several centuries; seas rising a hundred feet, the increase of temperatures on average by 9 degrees Fahrenheit, increasing numbers of Category Four and Five hurricanes, and tropical diseases in Nebraska and Illinois. And, if we don't fix it, it could last for thousands of years. I’m sure eventually it will be called something a bit more dire than climate change—something more on the order of “The Great Reckoning”, "The Big Meltdown" or some such thing taken from the headlines of an article about a particularly nasty weather event.
We should keep in mind that the last time atmospheric CO2 was this high was about 15 million years ago during the Miocene. Estimates are CO2 was between 475 and 665 ppm. Before that it was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 56 million years ago. Average temperatures during that time period were about 13 degrees Fahrenheit above today’s average. The rate at which we are pumping CO2 into the atmosphere is 9-10 times the rate during the PETM. Whereas the injection of CO2 during PETM was spread over 20,000 years and the warm period lasted 200,000 years; human civilization is on track to do the same thing in only three or four hundred years.
And that is the problem for setting a timeline. We don't really have any historical comparisons. We are in uncharted waters at the edge of the map where it says "Here Be Dragons." We are pouring CO2 into the atmosphere much faster than nature has been able to for at least the past 50 million years. Ultimately, equatorial regions may become nearly uninhabitable. At just a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature, the oceans will rise 5 to 10 meters. According to predictions from the IPCC, a 1.5 degree C. rise will occur by 2035 if nothing is done to curtail emissions.
And that is the problem for setting a timeline. We don't really have any historical comparisons. We are in uncharted waters at the edge of the map where it says "Here Be Dragons." We are pouring CO2 into the atmosphere much faster than nature has been able to for at least the past 50 million years. Ultimately, equatorial regions may become nearly uninhabitable. At just a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature, the oceans will rise 5 to 10 meters. According to predictions from the IPCC, a 1.5 degree C. rise will occur by 2035 if nothing is done to curtail emissions.
Although migration due to climate change has already begun, most people will not be affected for another generation. Here is a link to determine your city’s average temperature in 2050. After 2050, though, it is very speculative with one side promising annihilation and the other shrugging their shoulders and saying “Hey, it won’t be that bad.” Never in the history of mankind has an event of this magnitude been met with so little information about what will really happen.
Humans will adapt. We’ve already begun. As mentioned, some are already moving. Some are changing political affiliations to more climate conscious candidates. Some are changing what they study in school so they can help with the technical stuff. Governments will adapt as well. As it gets worse they will investigate terraforming as an alternative. Giant orbiting shields or massive injections of reflective aerosols into the atmosphere will block the Sun’s rays, bringing temperatures back down. Then it will get too cold and, just like at the office, people will start complaining about the temperature. The next world war may well be over control of the Earth’s thermostat.
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