Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts

Sunday, December 5, 2021

 

Quit Obsessing About Climate Change. What You Do or Don’t Do No Longer Matters.

by Glen Hendrix

Photo by Matt Palmer on Unsplash


Quit worrying about going vegan, or recycling, or riding a bicycle to work, or buying a Tesla instead of that Ford F-650 pickup you’ve always wanted in order to save the planet. You’re off the hook. It’s out of your hands. You can do these things if it makes you feel better, but they are not going to change the big picture. Whatever you do does not matter. Unless you are a head of state, king, president, prime minister, or other grand poobah, it is above your pay grade. If you are able to vote for people of power, that is what is left for you to do. Other than that …. nothing.

According to scientists, the only way to keep the planet’s temperature from increasing 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit is to immediately phase out all fossil fuel infrastructure and devices. As soon as existing coal, oil, or gas plants reach their engineered lifespans, instead of refurbishing we must shut them down. If we don’t, the estimates for increasing temperatures start going up. At 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, positive feedback loops of evaporating Arctic methane could kick in. Methane is 21 times better at warming the atmosphere than CO2. The warmer temps evaporate the methane. The methane makes the atmosphere warmer. It evaporates more methane …. you get the picture.

I don’t want to be a Donny Downer or a Cassandra but how likely do you think shutting down the fossil fuel industry is? The industry has just invested billions upon billions on natural gas liquefaction plants to easily transport this fuel around the world. They are not giving that up without a tooth and nail, knock down drag out; and they have the money to do it. There are 25 countries whose oil percentage of exports range from Malaysia’s 22.3% to Iraq’s 99.8%. The trucking, railways, shipping, and airline industries would have to be completely transformed to electric or hydrogen propulsion. They will be as reluctant as oil and gas to give it up. All 195 countries would require state-ordained laws banning the use of fossil fuels entirely. There are still vast numbers of people in Africa that gather around campfires and stoves burning wood or coal just like they did thousands of years ago. What are they going to use?

This is the most pivotal point in the history of man. We only get one shot at this. If we blow it, we won’t get a comparable situation for millions of years, if ever. If mankind does have a world-wide civilization by then, we will have forgotten all of this — this choice we had. Save the planet or just get along and ignore it until it is too late. Scientists are saying our planet is doomed and all I hear on the news is everything but that. We are a society in denial, trying to collectively whistle past the graveyard. Our weather men won’t even talk about it on the local news. It might be construed as political. It might upset people. We are so polite and civilized in our denouement.

Since it is off our individual shoulders now, maybe we should give more thought about how we tell our children what’s happening and what to expect in the future. Hopefully, they won’t kick you in the shins when they finally understand what you are talking about. How do we look someone like Greta Thunberg in the face and tell her we screwed up in the worst possible way. This Swedish teen will probably spit in your eye and tell you to fuck off and keep riding that bike to work. She is up for a Nobel Prize for her admonitions to do something about climate change. In reality, she should be voted Queen of the World, because that is exactly what is needed right now; some central, charismatic figure with smarts and determination to do what is right, what is required.

It is not really our fault. Besides being stupid and greedy, we are genetically handicapped to deal with this situation. We simply don’t live long enough to plan ahead. By “planning ahead” I don’t mean decades. I mean centuries. The reason is that people with money and power, the people with the means to do something, just don’t care. They would have to give up some of that money and power to change things. They figure they won’t be around to suffer the consequences of climate change anyway, so they just don’t give a damn. It would require Biblically long lifetimes to plan ahead for the human race. For now and the near future we can, at most, hope to live to a hundred, not the 969 years of Methuselah. If you were going to be around for the consequence of your actions or inaction for as long as he was, you would care.

Our one ray of hope is artificial intelligence. Pundits say a generalized AI, the singularity, will be here within 20 years. It will have the lifetime and the smarts to rationally plan ahead for a viable future for the Earth. Maybe, by the grace of God, it will take over and guide the human race rationally into the future instead of selling us as cheap, world-wrecking slaves to the first aliens that drop by.

So tell your children you are sorry for what is going on with the climate, but it’s not their fault or yours. Tell them some bad people made it too hard to do anything until it was too late. Tell them you will vote for people that might help with the problem. Maybe if we elect the right leaders, and they do the right things there is still time. Tell them to study science and engineering so that someday they might help with a solution or figure out adaptations to deal with it. Or you can put that whole talk off for later. I won’t blame you. You are only human.

Read more great articles on this blog and on Medium.

Sunday, July 28, 2019

A Timeline for Climate Change



Photo by Marcelo Novais on Unsplash



Climate change does not seem apocalyptic to the people currently living through it. Although it is happening much faster than other climate changes in Earth’s history, our lives are too short to appreciate the extreme differences that will occur. For instance, a person in their 60s now is not experiencing weather all that different from when they were growing up. Yes, it may be hotter in the summer time, but there were hot days when they were kids. More storms and stronger storms occur but not so different that you could call it apocalyptic. Those really bad weather events from our past become inflated by our imagination over time and thus ameliorate our perception of how bad current events are. 

What we currently call climate change will happen over several centuries; seas rising a hundred feet, the increase of temperatures on average by 9 degrees Fahrenheit, increasing numbers of Category Four and Five hurricanes, and tropical diseases in Nebraska and Illinois. And, if we don't fix it, it could last for thousands of years. I’m sure eventually it will be called something a bit more dire than climate change—something more on the order of “The Great Reckoning”, "The Big Meltdown" or some such thing taken from the headlines of an article about a particularly nasty weather event. 

We should keep in mind that the last time atmospheric CO2 was this high was about 15 million years ago during the Miocene. Estimates are CO2 was between 475 and 665 ppmBefore that it was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 56 million years ago. Average temperatures during that time period were about 13 degrees Fahrenheit above today’s average. The rate at which we are pumping CO2 into the atmosphere is 9-10 times the rate during the PETM. Whereas the injection of CO2 during PETM was spread over 20,000 years and the warm period lasted 200,000 years; human civilization is on track to do the same thing in only three or four hundred years. 

And that is the problem for setting a timeline. We don't really have any historical comparisons. We are in uncharted waters at the edge of the map where it says "Here Be Dragons." We are pouring CO2 into the atmosphere much faster than nature has been able to for at least the past 50 million years. Ultimately, equatorial regions may become nearly uninhabitable. At just a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature, the oceans will rise 5 to 10 meters. According to predictions from the IPCC, a 1.5 degree C. rise will occur by 2035 if nothing is done to curtail emissions. 

Although migration due to climate change has already begun, most people will not be affected for another generation. Here is a link to determine your city’s average temperature in 2050. After 2050, though, it is very speculative with one side promising annihilation and the other shrugging their shoulders and saying “Hey, it won’t be that bad.” Never in the history of mankind has an event of this magnitude been met with so little information about what will really happen. 

Humans will adapt. We’ve already begun. As mentioned, some are already moving. Some are changing political affiliations to more climate conscious candidates. Some are changing what they study in school so they can help with the technical stuff. Governments will adapt as well. As it gets worse they will investigate terraforming as an alternative. Giant orbiting shields or massive injections of reflective aerosols into the atmosphere will block the Sun’s rays, bringing temperatures back down. Then it will get too cold and, just like at the office, people will start complaining about the temperature. The next world war may well be over control of the Earth’s thermostat. 


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Saturday, July 6, 2019

Human Climate Change Migration Has Already Begun




Photo by Mathew Schwartz on Unsplash


You may not personally believe that over 97% of climate scientists are in agreement on climate change being real, bad, and caused by humans, but after watching this video of Australian climate scientists planning moves to cooler climes you may want to reconsider. They are reluctant to discuss on camera how bad it is going to get because they don’t want to scare anyone but not in the least reluctant to let their feet do the talking. That seems out of character for supposed money-grubbing, spotlight hugging, government leeches; but what the hell do I know.

Australia is being affected more so than most places by climate change. Heat and drought are continual threats. These climate scientists are planning on moving south into a more temperate zone. That would be Tasmania and New Zealand for Australians. One of them is moving to England. With the temperature reaching 113 degrees F. (historic all-time high) in France on June 29, 2019, he may be reconsidering that decision. 

It’s happening all over, not just Australians. It’s New Yorkers buying in the Catskills, and Houstonians buying in Oregon. It’s questions whispered to real estate gurus by bankers and doctors, “Where can I buy a safe piece of property for my son’s/daughter’s future?” It’s Elizabeth Boineaux moving from Charleston, South Carolina because her house had flooded for the third year in a row. It’s Chase Twichell and her husband moving from their retirement apartment in Miami back to New York because the rising water and threat of flooding was getting too scary. It’s Dave Anderson of Houston buying a 70 acre spread in Oregon because of hurricane Harvey. It’s the whole community of Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana picking up and moving 30 miles inland because their island is being quickly eroded by the rising ocean. A dozen communities in Alaska must move or perish. Properties in such disparate places as Houston and Staten Island are being bought by the government to be razed because they are too risky to live in because of storms and floods. 

This migration is already being compared in scale to the Great Migration, the movement of 6 million black Americans from Jim Crow south to northern cities; but climate migration is expected to reach 13 million by the end of the century, 6 million from Florida alone. And that is just based on people fleeing shore-based population centers. It does not include those that seek relief from the heat waves, tornadoes, wildfires, flooding, and tropical disease predicted to affect the rest of the country as a result of climate change. 

My wife and I were among the lucky ones during Harvey. We were on an island surrounded by devastation watching friends and family be inundated. It was a feeling of helplessness and insight. These were forces beyond our control, but I could see a way out for the future. As a result of that experience, we will be at the forefront of this “Greatest Migration” that has already begun at the dawn of the Anthropocene. 




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Outfitting a Mined Asteroid Into a Luxury Solar System Shuttle

The Environmental Advantage of a Space Elevator



Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS): The Existential Technology We Are Ignoring






There May Be a Quadrillion Dollars Lying About on the Moon

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Thursday, June 27, 2019

Movable Housing Will Increase With Climate Change



Photo by Josep Castells on Unsplash


The year is 2035. Ralph and Susie go to bed after an impromptu party at their mobile home camping center. At 12:45 AM the weather alarm goes off. The klaxon warning has them up and out of bed. The screen on the pilot console has come on automatically showing a local weather map, their location, and the location of an F3 tornado heading in their direction. 

Susie plops down in the captain’s chair, punches the “on” button, and grabs the joystick. Ralph straps into the copilot’s chair while the six props on the flying camper get up to speed. As soon as he clicks in, Susie pulls back on the joystick, and they lift into the air. Quick disconnects on electrical, cable, and plumbing do their job, leaving wires and tubing crisscrossed on the small concrete pad. 

Satellite feeds replace cable as Susie watches their craft pull away from the tornado on the screen. She veers out of the vortex’s predicted path, goes three miles further, just to be safe, and sets down on a hillock in a pasture to wait out the storm. 

Yes, climate change has given a completely new meaning to the term “mobile home” in the future. Because of the increase in violent weather and rising oceans, mobility may be a favorable asset for your living facilities. Snails will have nothing on humans, carrying all the comforts of home that technology will allow around with us. 

As the native Americans turned to the tent and horse-drawn travois to follow their favorite food around so might future Americans turn to camper vans and trailers to avoid recalcitrant weather. As the story above alludes to, maybe even a flying electric camper van (I thought of it first, Elon!) to make it easier to outmaneuver rain storms, wind storms, dust storms, snow storms, floods, heat waves, visiting relatives, or the park ranger. 

Seriously, as climate conditions worsen there will be adaptations by insects, wildlife, and humans. Wealthy humans will “hunker down” in expansive, well-supplied bunkers they feel are strong enough to survive any type of weather. Unfortunately for them, those places may not survive other humans looking for food when things get tough. The not-so-wealthy will probably adopt the same strategy as the wildlife and insects. They will simply move somewhere more pleasant and welcoming. 

Even now, the gig economy has produced a demand for mobile housing. Migrant Amazon workers, layoffs in manufacturing and retail, contract work here and there—these represent a rising disconnect between stable residency and place of work. The only stabilizing factor is working from home via computer and that trend is reversing.

One of the most popular vehicles in demand right now is the “stealth” camper van  and the stealthier the better. These are typically a Mercedes Sprinter, Ford Transit, or a Dodge Ram ProMaster van converted to a camper with beds, kitchen, bath, the works. The biggest tell-tales from the outside are the nacelle hiding the roll-up shade on one side and the AC on top. Typically there are no outside markings or fancy ad paint jobs proclaiming what they are. That’s the way people like it because they can park just about anywhere they want to catch six to eight hours of comfortable z’s without worrying about hassles from law enforcement. Currently, thousands of retirees cycle between Colorado in the summer and New Mexico in the winter in their vans, campers, and motorhomes to enjoy the best weather of each season. 

I don’t see a Mad Max world for the future, mainly because most vehicles by then will be electric, not gasoline powered. But I do see a world where people will adapt to worsening climate conditions. The costliest year for weather in the U.S. was 2017. Last year, 2018, was considered a “raging, howling signal of climate change.”  Week after week 2019 brings more tornadoes and so much rain the U.S. corn crop is pretty much destroyed by the historic flooding. These recent years of intensifying bad weather across the U.S. should give us pause to reflect on what might be in store for the future. How many times will people rebuild their homes from floods and tornadoes before they turn to another solution? 

I see a trend of mobility as the economy becomes more friable and the weather becomes more unpredictably treacherous. Maybe the U.S. will not become a nation of RV camping sites. Maybe we will get serious about controlling climate change and addressing inequality of wealth. Maybe we will not have to migrate to Alaska every summer in the future to catch a cool breeze. As for me, I’m working on the patent for that flying electric camper van. Don't tell Elon.



Other articles you may enjoy:







Outfitting a Mined Asteroid Into a Luxury Solar System Shuttle

The Environmental Advantage of a Space Elevator



Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS): The Existential Technology We Are Ignoring






There May Be a Quadrillion Dollars Lying About on the Moon

Mining That First Asteroid - Manned Mission or AI?

A Convergence of Technologies Will Create a New Age of Space Exploration



The Space Habitat Revisited and Revised