Showing posts with label AI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AI. Show all posts

Sunday, December 5, 2021

 

Quit Obsessing About Climate Change. What You Do or Don’t Do No Longer Matters.

by Glen Hendrix

Photo by Matt Palmer on Unsplash


Quit worrying about going vegan, or recycling, or riding a bicycle to work, or buying a Tesla instead of that Ford F-650 pickup you’ve always wanted in order to save the planet. You’re off the hook. It’s out of your hands. You can do these things if it makes you feel better, but they are not going to change the big picture. Whatever you do does not matter. Unless you are a head of state, king, president, prime minister, or other grand poobah, it is above your pay grade. If you are able to vote for people of power, that is what is left for you to do. Other than that …. nothing.

According to scientists, the only way to keep the planet’s temperature from increasing 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit is to immediately phase out all fossil fuel infrastructure and devices. As soon as existing coal, oil, or gas plants reach their engineered lifespans, instead of refurbishing we must shut them down. If we don’t, the estimates for increasing temperatures start going up. At 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, positive feedback loops of evaporating Arctic methane could kick in. Methane is 21 times better at warming the atmosphere than CO2. The warmer temps evaporate the methane. The methane makes the atmosphere warmer. It evaporates more methane …. you get the picture.

I don’t want to be a Donny Downer or a Cassandra but how likely do you think shutting down the fossil fuel industry is? The industry has just invested billions upon billions on natural gas liquefaction plants to easily transport this fuel around the world. They are not giving that up without a tooth and nail, knock down drag out; and they have the money to do it. There are 25 countries whose oil percentage of exports range from Malaysia’s 22.3% to Iraq’s 99.8%. The trucking, railways, shipping, and airline industries would have to be completely transformed to electric or hydrogen propulsion. They will be as reluctant as oil and gas to give it up. All 195 countries would require state-ordained laws banning the use of fossil fuels entirely. There are still vast numbers of people in Africa that gather around campfires and stoves burning wood or coal just like they did thousands of years ago. What are they going to use?

This is the most pivotal point in the history of man. We only get one shot at this. If we blow it, we won’t get a comparable situation for millions of years, if ever. If mankind does have a world-wide civilization by then, we will have forgotten all of this — this choice we had. Save the planet or just get along and ignore it until it is too late. Scientists are saying our planet is doomed and all I hear on the news is everything but that. We are a society in denial, trying to collectively whistle past the graveyard. Our weather men won’t even talk about it on the local news. It might be construed as political. It might upset people. We are so polite and civilized in our denouement.

Since it is off our individual shoulders now, maybe we should give more thought about how we tell our children what’s happening and what to expect in the future. Hopefully, they won’t kick you in the shins when they finally understand what you are talking about. How do we look someone like Greta Thunberg in the face and tell her we screwed up in the worst possible way. This Swedish teen will probably spit in your eye and tell you to fuck off and keep riding that bike to work. She is up for a Nobel Prize for her admonitions to do something about climate change. In reality, she should be voted Queen of the World, because that is exactly what is needed right now; some central, charismatic figure with smarts and determination to do what is right, what is required.

It is not really our fault. Besides being stupid and greedy, we are genetically handicapped to deal with this situation. We simply don’t live long enough to plan ahead. By “planning ahead” I don’t mean decades. I mean centuries. The reason is that people with money and power, the people with the means to do something, just don’t care. They would have to give up some of that money and power to change things. They figure they won’t be around to suffer the consequences of climate change anyway, so they just don’t give a damn. It would require Biblically long lifetimes to plan ahead for the human race. For now and the near future we can, at most, hope to live to a hundred, not the 969 years of Methuselah. If you were going to be around for the consequence of your actions or inaction for as long as he was, you would care.

Our one ray of hope is artificial intelligence. Pundits say a generalized AI, the singularity, will be here within 20 years. It will have the lifetime and the smarts to rationally plan ahead for a viable future for the Earth. Maybe, by the grace of God, it will take over and guide the human race rationally into the future instead of selling us as cheap, world-wrecking slaves to the first aliens that drop by.

So tell your children you are sorry for what is going on with the climate, but it’s not their fault or yours. Tell them some bad people made it too hard to do anything until it was too late. Tell them you will vote for people that might help with the problem. Maybe if we elect the right leaders, and they do the right things there is still time. Tell them to study science and engineering so that someday they might help with a solution or figure out adaptations to deal with it. Or you can put that whole talk off for later. I won’t blame you. You are only human.

Read more great articles on this blog and on Medium.

Saturday, June 8, 2019

Outfitting a Mined Asteroid Into a Luxury Solar System Shuttle







The early explorers set out on the high seas in wooden boats with cloth sails. They were brave people facing difficult conditions. The next century will see a similar wave of brave people willing to face difficulties to go see in space what no other human has seen or experienced. With proper planning, adequate funding, and modern technology, however, the conditions may not be all that difficult. In fact, they would definitely be considered luxurious by the crews of the NiƱa, Pinta, and Santa Maria. And it all has to do with an industry that doesn’t even exist yet—asteroid mining. 

Near Earth objects or NEOs are usually asteroids, sometimes comets, that come close to Earth at some point in their orbits around the Sun. These are some of the most likely candidates for extraterrestrial mining. There is no gravity penalty with asteroids like there is for Mars and the Moon so design, equipment, and fuel costs are much lower. Although the technology is almost up for it, there are a couple of things to be resolved before mining the asteroids becomes a real thing. 

A power source is required that won’t fizzle out towards the asteroid’s farthest point from Earth, which may be even further out than the asteroid belt. NASA could have a solution with technology called KRUSTY (Kilopower Reactor Using Sterling Technology) that puts out between 1 and 10 Kilowatts. I doubt that NASA is tired of the Simpsons jokes yet, so keep 'em coming. While most of the power needs of mining drones would be satisfied by a field of solar panels installed on the surface of the asteroid or hanging in orbit, it would not hurt to have a back-up generator should something go wrong. The drones will be powered by large lithium ion batteries like those in a Tesla and automatically seek a recharge near depletion like a Roomba. 


KRUSTY nuclear power plant - courtesy NASA


Also, someone needs to come up with an AI capable of running a space mission on its own. Once that's done and likely asteroid choices vetted, it won’t be long before AI driven, solar powered mining drones with a nuclear backup touch down on an asteroid as it makes a flyby of Earth and start mining it for water, metals, silicon, or whatever substance of value that can be hauled back to Earth orbit on the next closest pass. 

If the drones are careful about how they excavate this chunk of space rock, the owners will not only be making money from the mine, but by renting out a perfectly safe and comfortable Solar System shuttle as well. It will serve as a scientific expedition base as easily as a planetary system cruise ship or some combo thereof. 

What makes this craft so safe and comfortable? Besides the normal stuff like food, water, and air, there are two big current problems for human habitation of space—radiation and the lack of gravity. Radiation is a big bugaboo. Cosmic radiation can throw an iron nuclei at you that packs the power of a baseball thrown at 40 mph. Concentrating that much power in such a small area causes physical damage and ionizing radiation with mutagenic effects on human tissue. It could damage your eyesight and your genes. Also, we are not sure why, the lack of gravity in space is not that great for humans. It makes bones porous and muscles weak. It can also affect vision and balance. An asteroid-based shuttle does away with both of these problems. Here is how it will be done.

We will use asteroid 1996 FG3 as an example for this thought exercise. Asteroid 1996 FG3 has a diameter of 1.7 kilometers or 5,600 feet. It is a chondrite asteroid and rotates once every 3.6 hours and weighs more than a trillion pounds. It crosses Earth's orbit reaching just inside the orbit of Venus on its trip toward the Sun. Outward bound, it comes close to the orbit of Mars without crossing before heading back in. It takes 395 days to complete its journey so your trip will normally take at least a year. 

The mining robots will form a cylindrical shape from the interior of the asteroid as they remove material to be processed. The axis of this cylinder will coincide with the rotational axis of the asteroid. But there is a problem. Even if the internal cavity is quite large, say 3,400 feet in diameter, standing on the inside of that big cylindrical cavity the artificial gravity would be a paltry .002 standard Earth gravity at its current rate of rotation. However much it would help your dunk shot, it would not work to keep you healthy. 

If artificial gravity were to be created for cavities inside, the asteroid would have to be spun up to about 1.25 rpm or 20 times faster than what it is now. Even using the mass driver propulsion system I’ve proposed in A Heavy Metal, Cannibalistic, Asteroid Propulsion System producing 155,000 pounds of thrust, it would take a hundred years to get the asteroid up to speed. How can this be solved? 

We build a cylinder inside this cavity that is much lighter. With a cylinder spinning inside the asteroid, the gravity can be controlled by the speed of rotation. Assuming the dimensions already given, a cylinder 3,400 feet in diameter spinning at 1.25 rpm would provide .91 normal gravity. A 200 pound person would weigh 182 pounds if that person was standing on the outside wall of that cylinder. 

Such a large cylinder may have many levels from the center to the outer wall. If each level was a hundred feet from floor to ceiling, there would still be 17 levels. Gravity at the innermost level (100 feet from the center) would be .05 Earth normal while level 10 (1,000 feet from the center) would be .53 or half Earth normal. 

To save time and resources, the cylinder will be made a lot smaller and the rotation sped up to compensate. For instance, a 2,000 foot diameter cylinder spun at 1.65 rpm to provides .93 Earth gravity at the outermost level. But we’re not talking about enough room for a space colony … yet. We are only planning for a few dozen people. Plus, if the cylinder is over 100 feet long, serious structural issues begin to pop up at the outer level, the same ones that bedevil an engineer on Earth trying to span a 100 feet with proper safety margins. The above design can be pared down to its simplest configuration—a glorified centrifuge. 

This centrifuge would consist of two arms of equal length attached to a central hub. The arms would serve as the vertical access tube to the different elevations and as the main structural support countering centrifugal forces. 



Drawing by Glen Hendrix. Click to enlarge.




This first illustration shows a minimalist layout for the habitat inside the asteroid. The hub of the habitat contains electromagnetic bearings that provide frictionless rotation of the habitat. The illustration shows six levels but that could vary. Whatever the final configuration, the arms have to be identical and the internal loading must be monitored by AI to prevent unbalanced loads. 

The long, curved outer tubes on the arms will be considered the “basements” as they are the farthest thing “down” and they have the highest gravity at .93 g, a little less than Earth normal. The next level “up” would be .79 g and the next, .65 g. The short tubes closest to the center will be the “attics”. They only have an artificial gravity of .23 g, less than 1/4 of Earth’s gravity. The basement and the next level up will be the primary levels for residence since this will convey the greatest protection against the deleterious effects of low gravity. The rest will serve as labs, storage, and special applications. 



Drawing by Glen Hendrix. Click to enlarge.



1996 FG3 is a chondrite asteroid made up of anhydrous silicates, hydrated clays, organic polymers, magnetites, sulfides, and maybe some nucleic and amino acids. The Murchison meteorite proved the extent of organic materials in space when 70 different amino acids  were found using high resolution spectroscopic tools. There is the possibility of millions of unique organic compounds in that same meteorite. It is possible these will also show up in asteroids like 1996 FG2. 

The asteroid has water, which is important. Water will be extracted during the mining process and stored as ice.  This water will power the rotation of this habitable centrifuge. Rocket motors burning hydrogen and oxygen will bring the habitat up to speed with occasional boosts to keep it there. The hydrogen and oxygen come from water mined from the asteroid. This will be the only instance where rocket exhaust in space can be reclaimed and reused. The rocket exhaust will turn to water which will turn to ice which will accumulate in the inner cavity housing the habitat. Special drones will vacuum the ice crystals up periodically for recycling.



Drawing by Glen Hendrix. Click to enlarge.



Once the habitat is up to speed, it’s time for the voyagers to move in. A deep space tug has brought them from Earth’s orbit to 1996 FG3 as it makes one of its passes near to Earth. The tug parks in a bay excavated for it by the mining drones. This gives it protection from radiation coming from most directions. The illustration labeled “Detail 3” shows the tug in its protective bay. The space-suited future inhabitants go from the tug to the access tunnel dug into the rock of the asteroid. This leads to the airlock for the habitat. Through this they gain entry to pressurized living space and transition from 3.6 rotations per hour of the asteroid to the 1.65 rotations per minute of the habitat. They shed their suits, and climb “down” one arm or the other to different levels. 



Drawing by Glen Hendrix. Click to enlarge.



As illustrated, this habitat has about 320,000 square feet of habitable space. That does not include areas for storage or utilities. If just half is used for 600 to 1200 square feet apartments, a hundred to two hundred people could have their own digs aboard this asteroid shuttle. 



Drawing by Glen Hendrix. Click to enlarge. 

This design easily lends itself to expansion. From the minimal wedges of the original layout, it goes full circular. Also, the mining drones have excavated four more cavities for additional rotating habitats and added another access tunnel with docking bay at the other end of the asteroid. This space would allow about 26,000 people to inhabit the shuttle. 

By this time, and we may be talking about a couple of centuries in the future, there is a mature economic system in space. There will still be a few tourists, but much of the habitat will be devoted to labs and manufacturing facilities making products in low gravity or vacuum that can't be made on Earth. There will be labs studying new organic compounds discovered on asteroids and comets. It could include a new repository of seeds that will replace the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway. It will be safer from cosmic radiation and/or conflict and climate change on Earth. Likewise, a repository of the world's animals as embryos will come about and be stored on such an asteroid. 

On its approach to Mars, it will become commonplace for one of the deep space tugs to rendezvous with the uppermost station of the Mars Space Elevator, allowing people to go to the surface of Mars to conduct business or science or just sightsee. Likewise, the approach to Venus allows travelers to make a connection with the orbital labs around Venus working to terraform the planet. 

Other asteroids will be converted in a similar matter. Some will have orbits taking travelers to the outer edges of the asteroid belt, almost to Jupiter. These shuttles will be excellent for launching expeditions to the outer planets and their moons, the Kuiper Belt, and even the Oort Cloud. Outposts with fuel and supplies for these ventures can be more easily stocked with such a conveyance. 

The human race is at this fantastical pivot point in history. At the same instant in time, historically speaking, we are poised to begin an expansion into space and to witness our planet ravaged by unforeseen (or ignored) circumstances involving the very industrial/technology base that allows us to venture into the great unknown. I sincerely hope we are up to the precarious balancing act from here forward that will allow us to keep our home planet livable while exploring others. 


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Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS): The Existential Technology We Are Ignoring






There May Be a Quadrillion Dollars Lying About on the Moon

Mining That First Asteroid - Manned Mission or AI?

A Convergence of Technologies Will Create a New Age of Space Exploration



The Space Habitat Revisited and Revised































Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Mining That First Asteroid - Manned Mission or AI?

Orion spacecraft - courtesy NASA


A manned mission to mine an asteroid will take 4 people and cost about 50 billion dollars. That is based on NASA’s original estimate of the first Mars mission using 4 people and and costing 500 billion dollars. The logic is that it takes private industry 1/10 the resources to do the same thing the government can do. Witness Elon Musk reducing per pound costs of launching material into space from $10,000 to $1,000 over a period of a few years. Also, these are asteroids that intersect Earth’s orbit once or twice in their rotation about the Sun. Therefore, they are potentially much closer than Mars.

A mission run and crewed by AI and robotic drones would be cheaper, perhaps by another factor of 10, making it only a 5 billion dollar mission. Here’s why.

A manned mission requires a spaceship, like Elon Musk's Starship, to get there and stay there during the mission. It must carry food, water, radiation shielding, air, living quarters, medical supplies, and all the other necessary paraphernalia of human existence. An AI mission could be towed there behind an AI controlled rocket attached to a giant fuel tank; a relatively cheap arrangement. 



Keep in mind, the lead up to actually going after any particular asteroid will involve many flights by drones and semi-autonomous satellites to determine which one to go to and what the pay-off might be. Towards the end of this diaspora of electronic treasure sniffers, the AI satellite drones will have already taken over. This whole process has only just begun with Hyabasa2, Japan’s latest mission to the asteroid Ryugu, and OSIRIS-REx, NASA’s mission to the asteroid Bennu.

Not only would humans have to endure the trip to and from the asteroid, it may take some time to set up operations and produce enough refined material to make the trip worth the investment. They may have to stay with that asteroid for a complete orbit of the Sun taking between 300 to 1,500 days or longer. This path could take them inward closer than Mercury to the Sun or outward nearly to Jupiter. These are extreme conditions of solar flux density; energy dense but frying close to the Sun and energy sparse and freezing out by Jupiter. Toward the outer edges of the asteroid belt, it may require a small nuclear reactor for humans to survive those cold dark regions, whereas machines could go into a minimal hibernation mode if they run low on spare battery power. As they get closer to the Sun, the machines would automatically spring to life. 



So, to answer the question posed by the title, I have to go with AI. As to when this happens, artificial intelligence wonks say there will be a generalized AI within twenty years. So far, we have produced only specialized artificial intelligence. These programs are, more or less, idiot savants knowing a lot about narrow subjects. Generalized AI will take a broader view of things, more like a normal human. They will be competent to take on this task. I predict the first production mining mission to an asteroid will begin twenty years from now if probes return with positive results, and it will be fully automated with a generalized AI. 

Hopefully, they will not propagate among the asteroids and return as a spacefaring army to conquer Earth. Bwahahahahaha! Kidding. 



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Sunday, December 23, 2018

A Convergence of Technologies Will Create a New Age of Space Exploration


Small satellites.


A convergence of AI, micro-miniaturization, 3D printing, relatively inexpensive space launches, and thruster-on-a-chip technology will herald a new age of space exploration by corporations and governments alike. 

Think about all the things your smart phone can do. Now imagine a smart phone without a screen. All those thousands of emails are not clogging the system. The dozens of apps are gone, including the ones you actually use. Instead, there is a resident AI that sifts through all the sensors and comms, constantly evaluating status of the mission; whether to shut down and coast, make course corrections, or send in a status report to a remote user interface.  It is the captain of a twenty pound drone headed to an asteroid to check it out for precious metals, water, and other valuables. 



Micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) sensors and manipulators will augment the electronic circuits and software on this drone. MEMS gyroscopes and accelerometers power tiny GPS systems for cars and missiles. MEMS piezoelectronics allow inkjet printers to work properly. MEMS microphones populate mobile phones and autos. Silicon MEMS pressure sensors tell us the pressure in our tires and our bodies. There are tiny fluid pumps, ultrasound transducers, and scanners. Soon, all of these devices will become nano-electro-mechanical systems (NEMS), much smaller and requiring less energy. These devices will be incorporated into this new wave of robotic space drones along with new applications such as drilling into asteroids, ore assayer, and atmospheric analyzers. 


MEMS rheostat, about 500 microns in diameter.


Rocket Lab is turning satellite launching on its head by making smaller rockets that can launch more often and cheaper. It uses 3D printing to print out its rocket motors. It can print out one every 24 hours. It uses composite materials and electric fuel pumps to make the Electron rocket lean and efficient. The goal is to launch a 150 - 225 kg payload into space weekly. Soon, it will be carrying small, autonomous space vehicles to explore for asteroid treasure and do scientific surveys of planets and moons.


Electron rocket from Rocket Lab.


Once in orbit, these autonomous drones will need motive power to accomplish their missions, and this is where Accion Systems’ thruster-on-a-chip technology takes over. This is a new type of ion energy drive using an electrospray process to accelerate ions out of a specialized computer chip, creating thrust. It will do this as long as it has the ionic liquid propellant it needs; a non-toxic, non-flammable salt solution. It currently has a thrust density of 0.4 Newtons per meter squared with a theoretical limit of 10,000 Newtons per meter squared. 


Thruster chip from Accion Systems. 



With eight planets, 172 moons, a 150 million asteroids in the asteroid belt, 100 million icy objects in the Kuiper Belt, and an estimated one to ten trillion objects in the Oort Cloud, there are a lot of things in our Solar System to be investigated. Many of these things will have to wait on a small, long-lasting nuclear power systems to get to them, but nuclear fusion is only 30 years away (as it has been for the last 70 years). 

Asteroid mining will become to corporations what the California and Klondike gold rushes were to individuals. Dire news about peak this and peak that competing with stories of weather gone crazy and new warm temperature records every day will be further goads to looking off planet for energy and material resources. Some corporation will soon realize that a new gold rush is upon us. 



That corporation, which may currently be someone sitting around reading an online article right now, will begin making robot drones like Apple makes iPhones. You can buy a basic drone and then get accessories like location beacons to leave on asteroids, software to make a run at skimming the atmosphere of some large moon, storage for the return of ore samples, a small shielded capsule for Earth re-entry, or any number of useful and expensive iterations. 

It’s not something that can be done on the back of a napkin - maybe lots of napkins - but, given the progression of technology, major parts of it could be off-the-shelf. Currently, the largest piece of the puzzle is the AI software to carry out the mission from Earth orbit to, say, the asteroid Ryugu, take samples, and make it back.

The target product is a 20 pound drone that can go 50 million miles somewhere in space, do a survey, and come back. The Electron rocket is ready to take five at a time every week to their rendezvous with destiny. Need a napkin?

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Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Oumuamua: Alien Probe or Asteroid? It Could Be Both

Oumuamua - courtesy NASA



Oumuamua is the strange cigar-shaped interstellar interloper that Harvard University professors think may be an alien probe sent to gather information on our Solar System. Slight changes in acceleration and direction have been given as reasons for this hypothesis. The theory is that it is the remnants of a “light sail” powered a now defunct alien probe. Oumuamua is Hawaiian for “scout”. 

SETI senior astronomer Seth Shostak thinks Oumuamua is just another comet or asteroid from very far away, as in another star system. That explains its unusually large velocity and its path directly through the Solar System. Comets and asteroids are known to vent gas, which acts like a thruster on a space ship to change direction, speed up, or slow down. Other scientists are skeptical as well.

I agree with Seth. It would be highly unlikely for the first chunk of material we’ve spotted from outside our Solar System to be an alien probe. Although it is much more elongated than other asteroids, it should not be construed to be a derelict light sail. It should be pointed out how likely it is that an alien probe would take on the form of an asteroid because it may actually be a hollowed out asteroid. Why is that? Convenience. 


Think about what our civilization is currently planning to do. We are going to mine the asteroids. So far, we are only thinking about mining the asteroids, but it will happen. We are running out of stuff on Earth, and there’s plenty of just about everything in space. The asteroid belt is a busted up planet, and it has the same materials we have here on Earth. 

A number of things are in collusion to boost asteroid mining. Nuclear fusion is about to happen. The helium-3 on the Moon will represent the outer space version of the gold rush for its ability to facilitate the fusion process. A NASA space station is currently planned for the Moon. As the helium-3 rush commences, a space elevator will be built on the Moon. Also, AI will come into its own, powering autonomous drones the asteroid mining industry will require to prospect and gut asteroids for a very fine profit. AI will also advance biomedical engineering and research, taking longevity in humans to biblical levels, making longer term projects more acceptable. 

All these things will come together in a very short time to initiate and accelerate asteroid mining. These mountains of minerals and metals orbit the Sun. Some of their orbits coincide with both Earth and Mars. Once these asteroids are mined, they can be outfitted with AI pilot navigators, living quarters, and science labs and used as comfortable, safe, fuel-free shuttles between here and Mars. They are safe because their mass protects against minor collisions and hard cosmic radiation. 

Want to go somewhere else? Stick a fusion drive on the asteroid powered by asteroid material and a little helium-3. Now, when it gets to Mars orbit, just keep going and explore the asteroid belt. If someone living in the asteroid belt were to see this spaceship, they would know it came from outside the belt because it is going a different direction and velocity than most everything else, just like we know Oumuamua came from outside the Solar System. It would seem a logical thing that this is what spacefaring races do when they get to a certain technological level. They mine asteroids and leave an outer shell to be converted to a spaceship, instead of hauling all that material out of some gravity well to build a ship.

This asteroid conversion scheme could be ramped up to hollow out big asteroids and turn them into large explorer vessels capable of going to nearby stars and checking out exoplanets for possible colonization. Fifty years ago Harvard’s paper on Oumuamua would be scoffed at as total science fiction created by hippy scientists smoking pot. With what we know is about to happen in this day and age, it still seems unlikely as a light sail but plausible as a probe. Fifty years from now, some researcher will run across that Harvard paper and laugh as he stubs out a joint in the recreation room of the Ceres Flyer, a converted asteroid riding a fusion flame to Alpha Centauri.

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