Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Real Wealth Inequality Is at It’s Worst Since the Beginning of Civilization, Not the Roaring Twenties



Photo by Nick Fewings on Unsplash



Articles on wealth inequality written in 2019 say it is the worst since before the Great Depression—the Roaring Twenties, The Jazz Age. These same articles say it’s getting worse. 

Here is a statistic to better describe the situation. The top 1% possess 40% of the nation’s wealth, the bottom 80% own 7%.

I say it is much worse than anybody lets on. In fact, it is worse than it's ever been. Let me explain why. 

First, let’s have a short discussion about what defines wealth. Some of the poorest citizens in the United Sates possess things that no ancient king or ruler, even Mansa Musa the King of Timbuktu with his estimated $400 billion dollars, could ever have. 

This lower economic class citizen might have at their beck and call a carriage with the power of 200 galloping horses beneath its hood, an air conditioned and heated dwelling that maintains a reasonable temperature no matter the outdoor temp, a fridge to preserve food, a TV for entertainment, a phone to call anyone in the world anywhere, a device to surf the internet or access most of the knowledge of mankind, a pill to make pain or infection go away. The list is long. 

Realistically speaking, this person has a lot of lifestyle advantages over Mansa Musa, or King Solomon, or any number of historic billionaires right up to the twentieth century. Because of technology, one’s quality of life may be equal or better than the wealthy of yesteryear.

As a side note: Keep in mind the 2010 census describes half the population of the United States as “poor or low income”. Extreme poverty afflicts 1.5 million households which live on less than $2 a day before government assistance. Some of these people don’t have cars, clean running water, indoor toilets, refrigerators, or any health care. 

Technology is also the reason a current billionaire’s life has changed by an order of magnitude over those of the past, leapfrogging even an upper middle class person’s lifestyle, choices, and power.

It turns out that a billion dollars now is not the same as a billion dollars back then, and it all revolves around what a billion dollars can currently buy. Once again we turn to the last century as a time when things began to get weird in a science fiction kind of way.

World War II spawned a slew of technologies that forced the expansion and advancement of knowledge resulting in today’s panoply of technological marvels and cleverness. 

For instance, propaganda is a very old practice, but the war forced changes. Film and radio were the added dimensions that made propaganda so effective for both sides during the war. Since that time, it has been an axiom that any new technology that can be used will be used for propaganda. 

Social media has allowed propaganda to take on a sinister disguise to sway the unwary. Propaganda campaigns on social media and in other venues is something the wealthy can now buy that was not available in the past. Back then, the rich could possess the bodies of a population but not their hearts and minds. Things are different now. 

Propaganda has been honed, tweaked, and optimized by Madison Avenue and corporate America to power the advertising technologies that create so much angst in American society by having people desire things they can’t afford. We are a society inundated by constant, unrelenting waves of commercial propaganda. They don't just tell us what to buy. They tell us how we should think and act. I hate to break this to you, although you may have suspected, we are not a normal society. 

The overt and subliminal pressure is so much for some they have turned to drugs for relief. The wealthy, for the most part, are sheltered from this constant pressure. Even if they succumb and buy that Lamborghini, what does it matter? They can afford it. 

About the same time as the Second World War, wealthy individuals started taking advantage of a quirk in the American political structure. They were allowed to give Senators and Congressmen money in exchange for favorable business environments through legislation in a process benignly labeled “lobbying”. In other parts of the world it is called bribery. While bribery has been around for a long time, past billionaires still had to worry about getting caught, unlike their modern American counterparts.

In 2010, the Supreme Court case of Citizens United vs FEC allowed corporations the First Amendment political right to buy ads in any and all American elections. Since that time the floodgates have opened for money to flow into the coffers of political campaigns and super pacs to be used for ... you guessed it, propaganda. 

Having legislators sponsor bills in exchange for campaign money is one way wealthy people and large corporations control enactment of laws to favor themselves, including purchasing monopolies and lowering taxes. This process perverts the idea held by ordinary citizens that our elected officials are working for the good of the general populace instead of certain individuals. 

Another area where the current crop of wealthy have an advantage over their predecessors is medical technology. The fact is that the ultra-wealthy don’t really need health insurance, although they probably have the best money can buy. 

There are many hospitals that now practice what is commonly called “wealthcare” where the wealthy are ushered to the heads of lines for procedures that may very well save their lives. This is in exchange for large donations to go to expansion or equipment. All well and good you say until the realization occurs that someone back in that line was nearing their expiration date and might not make it now. 

The technical advance of weaponry and the art of war has been prodigious. Body armor, fully automatic 12 gauge shotguns, sniper rifles accurate up to a mile away, spy drones—these are just a few examples. Some of the best stuff we’re probably not even aware of. 

A small, well-trained, and properly outfitted army would be unstoppable in most areas of the world. They could be used for security or for much more nefarious reasons. Imagine Seal Team 6 times ten and you have some idea of the sheer physicality of force affordable to some now. 

Don’t get me wrong. Billionaires should be highly compensated for their innovation and job creation. But please don’t buy into the myth that their money is a huge source of innovation and job creation. It’s just money. They may or may not put it to good use. 

For every Elon Musk there are probably a hundred billionaires who are using these absurdly effective tools and technologies I’ve been describing to hang on to or increase their existing fortunes instead of spending money on building new companies and new technologies that create jobs.

What is so very wrong about the current situation is that the tools, the privilege, and the technology available to this elite group of people allow them to keep increasing this disparity of wealth between the one tenth of one percent and everybody else. It is an unfair advantage that the wealthy of generations past did not have. 

We may nearing a tipping point beyond which there is no way to regulate this historical anomaly. 

And these are the “good” billionaires. There is another group of billionaires that are the bad actors of the wealthy set. These are people like the heads of Mexican cartels. Once these people fully realize what is possible with their money, this world will become a much more dangerous place. 

The marginal tax rate for the poor is approaching 90% in many cases while that of a lot of corporations and wealthy individuals is at or getting close to zero. It used to be the other way around. Even some billionaires, notably Warren Buffet, are embarrassed by the low taxation on the wealthy and want it changed. 


It is time for the United States of America to just say “no” to the continuing trend of lowering taxes for the rich and corporations and penalizing the poor for being poor. We can only do it at the ballot box. Vote for those who want to increase the tax on the wealthy and change the lobbying and campaign finance laws. No matter what our economic status is, we can still wield that small amount of power left to us to send a message to the ultra wealthy, “We’re on to you! Pay your fair share!”




Thursday, July 4, 2019

Lag in Sociological Evolution Has Become an Existential Problem




Photo by Crawford Jolly on Unsplash 


Technology has evolved from the invention of the tool to the machine to the automated machine. From stone spearheads to autonomous cars in 5,000 years. The evolution of our society has not been able to keep pace.

Sociological studies of primates show that their societal structures are very stable. For instance, the gorilla formed the societal artifice of a single male with a harem about 16 million years ago and it has evolved little, if any, since. Humans are primates but are not as socially rigid as the gorilla. At some point we went from individual mating couples to banding together in mixed sex groups in a short period of time, apparently to take advantage of strength in numbers. Out of tribes came the ancient civilizations. 

The ancient world was a very fluid and free time for humanity. One could travel unfettered all over the world if you had the means and sufficient bodyguards. There was very little restriction. Restrictions on travel did not occur until the third and fourth centuries of the Roman Empire when serfdom came into being. Serfs were not allowed to travel and had to accept their lord’s conditions of existence. The Romans even invented the “passport” to control travel. Shortly afterward, during the Renaissance, the idea of nation states took hold, allowing rulers to control valuable labor and get rid of unwanted ethnic and religious minorities simply be importing or exporting them across borders. 

This is pretty much where we are stuck now. The nation state system has been in effect since the Renaissance 700 years ago, although superficially changed by colonialism and two world wars. Our society has gone from mating pairs to tribalism to nation states over the past 800,000 years. Our technological advances make our sociological advances look quaint. Technologically, we have gone from fire to nuclear fusion. Sociologically, we have gone from mating pairs to large, combative groups of mating pairs—not that great of an advancement. One could argue it is a regression. 

Societies were originally invented to protect all the members of that society. The accumulation of wealth, power, and technology by a few in these societies has allowed the original intent of protection for all members to be perverted into protection of those members with wealth and power. The extent of this varies a lot from country to country. For a dichotomy look at Scandinavian countries with their social democracy versus the U.S. with its blatant plutocracy. Quality of life in America is plunging. Lifespans are shortening. Infant and maternal death rates are rising. Four in ten people in the U.S. would not be able to come up with a $400 emergency expense. People die without healthcare. Two-thirds of bankruptcies are for medical reasons. Scandinavians, on the other hand, regularly survey as being some of the happiest people on Earth. They have little inequality of income and universal single payer healthcare. 

This article is not about the vagaries of American society. America is just an example of what can go wrong in the current sociological setting. There are other countries just as bad or worse than the United States, and that is the point. 

No country on Earth takes the stand that the world’s resources are for everybody, not just those that figure out how to wheedle them out of everybody else. And that is the end game of capitalism. One person ends up with everything. The only game worse is communism where everybody ends up with nothing. Capitalism being the economic mechanism du jour for the world does not mean that, as a species, we are well and totally fucked. It seems to be working in countries where money is not allowed to buy votes or legislation. It is not working in America. American needs to come up with a way to control capitalism so that it reflects a benefit for all parties involved instead of only a few. We still all collectively need clean air and water, food, health care, shelter, and education. We need a climate that is not going to morph into a man killer or destroyer of homes. 

The Scandinavian countries have managed a balancing act of free market capitalism and a comprehensive welfare state using a parliamentary democracy. We would do well to look at and, perhaps borrow, some of their methods. 

Climate change has added an urgency to the mix. What we need now is a world organization that has the power to control nations similar to what nations now have in controlling their individual states or prefectures—a United Nations on steroids or everything Lance Armstrong took to win Tour de France seven times. 

We cannot keep letting our sociological evolution slip backwards while our technical evolution soars. Technology is giving tools to individuals that allow them to take advantage of others to an extent that was never possible in pre-technology. And the rate at which that is happening is increasing geometrically. We have become thinly veneered reptilian brains with nukes and lasers and military grade psychological warfare techniques. 

Is it hopeless? Are we doomed? Will we succumb, as a species, to the baser instincts DNA has provided to survive a landscape of dire wolves, cave lions, and giant bears? I think it depends on those other facilities nature gave us. Our capacity for empathy and love and understanding must be developed on an individual basis to be able, as a group, to decide how to go forward into a better future. It is dependent on us … no, it is dependent on you to love your neighbor as yourself. It is dependent on you to understand we are all human beings with the same wants and desires for well-being and happiness no matter which side of whatever border we come from. Once that happens on an individual basis then no, we are not doomed. It is not hopeless. We can then decide through the mechanism of our democratic society the correct path forward. And when that happens we will know that our social evolution is back on track to catch up with our technological evolution after seven hundred years of stagnation. 






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A Convergence of Technologies Will Create a New Age of Space Exploration



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Sunday, December 23, 2018

A Convergence of Technologies Will Create a New Age of Space Exploration


Small satellites.


A convergence of AI, micro-miniaturization, 3D printing, relatively inexpensive space launches, and thruster-on-a-chip technology will herald a new age of space exploration by corporations and governments alike. 

Think about all the things your smart phone can do. Now imagine a smart phone without a screen. All those thousands of emails are not clogging the system. The dozens of apps are gone, including the ones you actually use. Instead, there is a resident AI that sifts through all the sensors and comms, constantly evaluating status of the mission; whether to shut down and coast, make course corrections, or send in a status report to a remote user interface.  It is the captain of a twenty pound drone headed to an asteroid to check it out for precious metals, water, and other valuables. 



Micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) sensors and manipulators will augment the electronic circuits and software on this drone. MEMS gyroscopes and accelerometers power tiny GPS systems for cars and missiles. MEMS piezoelectronics allow inkjet printers to work properly. MEMS microphones populate mobile phones and autos. Silicon MEMS pressure sensors tell us the pressure in our tires and our bodies. There are tiny fluid pumps, ultrasound transducers, and scanners. Soon, all of these devices will become nano-electro-mechanical systems (NEMS), much smaller and requiring less energy. These devices will be incorporated into this new wave of robotic space drones along with new applications such as drilling into asteroids, ore assayer, and atmospheric analyzers. 


MEMS rheostat, about 500 microns in diameter.


Rocket Lab is turning satellite launching on its head by making smaller rockets that can launch more often and cheaper. It uses 3D printing to print out its rocket motors. It can print out one every 24 hours. It uses composite materials and electric fuel pumps to make the Electron rocket lean and efficient. The goal is to launch a 150 - 225 kg payload into space weekly. Soon, it will be carrying small, autonomous space vehicles to explore for asteroid treasure and do scientific surveys of planets and moons.


Electron rocket from Rocket Lab.


Once in orbit, these autonomous drones will need motive power to accomplish their missions, and this is where Accion Systems’ thruster-on-a-chip technology takes over. This is a new type of ion energy drive using an electrospray process to accelerate ions out of a specialized computer chip, creating thrust. It will do this as long as it has the ionic liquid propellant it needs; a non-toxic, non-flammable salt solution. It currently has a thrust density of 0.4 Newtons per meter squared with a theoretical limit of 10,000 Newtons per meter squared. 


Thruster chip from Accion Systems. 



With eight planets, 172 moons, a 150 million asteroids in the asteroid belt, 100 million icy objects in the Kuiper Belt, and an estimated one to ten trillion objects in the Oort Cloud, there are a lot of things in our Solar System to be investigated. Many of these things will have to wait on a small, long-lasting nuclear power systems to get to them, but nuclear fusion is only 30 years away (as it has been for the last 70 years). 

Asteroid mining will become to corporations what the California and Klondike gold rushes were to individuals. Dire news about peak this and peak that competing with stories of weather gone crazy and new warm temperature records every day will be further goads to looking off planet for energy and material resources. Some corporation will soon realize that a new gold rush is upon us. 



That corporation, which may currently be someone sitting around reading an online article right now, will begin making robot drones like Apple makes iPhones. You can buy a basic drone and then get accessories like location beacons to leave on asteroids, software to make a run at skimming the atmosphere of some large moon, storage for the return of ore samples, a small shielded capsule for Earth re-entry, or any number of useful and expensive iterations. 

It’s not something that can be done on the back of a napkin - maybe lots of napkins - but, given the progression of technology, major parts of it could be off-the-shelf. Currently, the largest piece of the puzzle is the AI software to carry out the mission from Earth orbit to, say, the asteroid Ryugu, take samples, and make it back.

The target product is a 20 pound drone that can go 50 million miles somewhere in space, do a survey, and come back. The Electron rocket is ready to take five at a time every week to their rendezvous with destiny. Need a napkin?

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Thursday, September 6, 2018

What Will Be the Most Common Currency In a Future Space-Based Society?


Courtesy NASA

Gold coins? Platinum pellets? Grains of cobalt? I predict water will be the preferred currency in outer space. You can drink it, bathe in it, breathe it (oxygen), burn it in rocket engines (oxygen and hydrogen), grow things (hydroponics), and protect yourself from radiation. 

Water is easily stored, shaped, and divided up for transactions. It can be flash frozen and quickly thawed with the deep cold of space and the intense radiation of the Sun.


Paper bags take 5 X the water to make and 7 X the fuel to transport than plastic bags 


The current method of water storage in space looks like duffel bags with a spout as this picture reveals. This astronaut is obviously reveling in the fortune of water surrounding him. That water is worth $83,400 per gallon based on the current cost of $10,000 to put a pound of something into orbit. Hopefully, it is Evian or Fuji.


Water storage aboard ISS - Courtesy NASA

Or one could build a palace of ice in outer space. There is that much water available on some asteroids. Just make sure the seal between the ice and the airlock stays frozen solid. 

Small entrepreneurs will make their first fortunes by seeking out chunks of ice in the asteroid belt or simply mining close-flying asteroids for the liquid gold. Planetary Resources, an actual asteroid mining company, has recently stated that it will concentrate on water instead of precious metals as its first acquisition. 

Water globule floating on ISS - courtesy NASA


The companies that first acquire water in space will be like the merchants that made fortunes selling picks and shovels to the forty-niners in the California gold rush. 

The importance and value of water will demand that water recycling and reclamation units aboard space vehicles and habitats be ubiquitous and efficient. Even if someone dies in space, the water in their body will be reclaimed before burial in space or transportation back to Earth. This will be part of a signed agreement when someone goes to work in space. Their immediate kin will get some portion of the value of that water in space, even if they are on Earth. 


Saving the world one bag at a time. Recycling genius.  


Security will be a concern as well. When a worker’s contract ends, what’s to keep him from filling flexible bags of water and hiding them about his body and carry-all? When he gets back to the orbiting end of the Lunar Space Elevator or a space station near Earth, he turns his water in for some Earth-based currency like gold or platinum before going back to the planet. 

The biggest non-recoverable expenditure of water in space will be for rocket fuel. The biggest recoverable use for water in space will likely be radiation shielding. It is efficient over a spectrum of radiation including cosmic and gamma rays. In fact, radiation shielding may be designed to not only protect against radiation but to be a reserve source of fuel as well. 

It is possible a water-based currency, both physical and digital, will be established in a space-based culture of dozens of companies and thousands of workers. Since water melts so readily, the gold coins, platinum pellets, or grains of cobalt mentioned before might actually be used; and they will represent some predetermined amount of water. That amount will most likely be decided by some committee with all of the space-based companies represented. The value of water will fluctuate as discoveries are made on asteroids being mined and unrecoverable expenditures of water such as rocket fuel are used up. There may one day be a cryptocurrency based on water - H20coin, of course. 

The actual water will be kept in some safe place, a giant chunk of ice hidden, or well-guarded, or both. As a matter of course, owners of large quantities of water in space will, at some point, have that water melted and mixed with some small amount of radioactive isotope to “brand” it. It won't be enough to affect health, but it will be easy to track if it is stolen. 

There is probably more water in asteroids than on Earth. Its value in space comes from the difficulty and expense of finding and securing it. Those who do this first will be the future lords and princes of outer space. They will control the lifeblood of space.

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Monday, August 6, 2018

How We Will Get Asteroid Material Back To Earth




Tesla Roadster in space - courtesy wikipedia







We won't be hauling it down with a Tesla Roadster.


An asteroid one kilometer in diameter is parked at the Lagrange point L5 of the Earth/Moon gravitational system. The asteroid orbits the Earth at the same distance as the Moon - 238,900 miles. If a line were drawing through the center of the Earth to the Moon and the center of Earth to the asteroid there would be about a 45 degree angle between those lines. It is in a safe, stable orbit that does not require regular expenditures of fuel to keep it there. This safe, stable location was the deal between the United Nations and the company retrieving the giant space rock; actually more metal than rock. 16217 Ryugu contains iron, nickel, cobalt, water, nitrogen, hydrogen, and ammonia. 


Plastic bags are made from ethane, a part of natural gas burned as waste before they started making plastic bags. 



Outer space construction has not yet hit its stride so some cheap way is needed to get these metals to the surface of Earth where they can be sold. Here is how it could be done. 

If chunks of metal were cut off of Ryugu and simply dropped to Earth, it would be a mess. Chunks big enough not to vaporize completely upon reentry could do major damage. The velocity when it reached Earth would be nearly 200,000 miles per hour and create an explosion equivalent to 100,000 tons of TNT. So, for practicality, we need to get this stuff closer to Earth and reduce that velocity. 


Flaming mass making reentry - courtesy Neil Bleving




A deal is brokered between the powers that be on Earth and the asteroid mining company so that a million ton chunk of iron can be brought into a medium Earth orbit about 2,000 miles up with careful planning and monitoring. Along with it comes several space tugs and lots of water (from the asteroid) as fuel (electrolysis - oxygen, hydrogen) to keep it in orbit. Engines are anchored to the big asteroid chunk and will automatically kick in to prevent a deterioration in orbit. 

Any amount of heat one requires in outer space is available. One simply needs the right size mirror configured to apply that heat to an appropriately sized area on command. With this heat the stoney portions of an asteroid and, perhaps, lunar regolith can be melted and turned into ceramic. Metals can be melted down by these same mirrors. 

Concentrating mirrors cut off a 300 ton chunk of iron and begin to melt it down. 

Concurrently, stoney portions of the asteroid are melted to form ceramic. While the ceramic is molten, pre-heated (to prevent explosive expansion) nitrogen is introduced into the ceramic melt to produce a foamed ceramic material. This material will be formed into the shape of a lifting body similar to that of the Space Shuttle but about half the size.  As the hot nitrogen entrained in the ceramic cools it forms a partial vacuum, making the material much less conductive to heat. 


It takes 7 trucks to move the same number of paper bags as one truck moving plastic bags. 



The blob of iron melt is rammed into the ceramic mold. High temperature spargers inserted through the wall of the mold inject the iron with nitrogen as well, making a foamed metal having one tenth the weight of iron while still retaining much of its strength.

Once out of the mold, a foamed-ceramic mat is attached to the bottom of the foamed metal lifting body. and a steering module is inserted into the cavity molded in the rear to accept it. This is a heat-resistant rudder and elevators on vertical and horizontal stabilizers controlled by an onboard GPS and autopilot. Built in space with only the electronics and motor coming from Earth, those parts are used again while the rest is recycled. 

A railgun is built on the mass of the asteroid chunk and points at a tangent point to Earth about 100 miles above the surface. The lifting body is attached through grooves molded into it and launched towards Earth at 20,000 miles per hour retrograde to orbital velocity. When the lifting body reaches the upper atmosphere, it is going much slower in relation to the Earth, allowing a safe, guided landing on a shallow lake where it is recovered. 

The bubbled metal might be worth many times its solid value, making the whole operation profitable. Many types of metallurgy may be possible in a vacuum and weightlessness that aren’t feasible on Earth. We could be talking about metals such as high temperature inconels that are very expensive. I designed a coil in a furnace, the prototype for making BPA free plastic bottles, where a 6 inch schedule 40 (1/4” thick wall) piece of pipe cost $1200 per linear foot. 

For smaller packages of very valuable metals like platinum or palladium, NASA may have just the thing. They have developed a folding heat shield. A small reentry vessel with a hundred pounds of palladium has a heat shield that folds out to a much larger size than the vessel itself, creating a shield off of which most of the frictional heat is sloughed away around the side of the vessel on its reentry path to an elevation and speed at which it can deploy a parachute. Be there to pick it up before someone else gets it because that's 1.6 million dollars we're talking about. 



courtesy NASA


These are the possibilities once we start thinking about how to maximize the payback for such a massive undertaking as capturing an asteroid. Of course, the real payoff for the asteroid miner will be when construction off world begins, increasing the value of their asteroid many times. Unexpected returns will be the technological advances necessary to get this done that will eventually work their way into our everyday lives. 

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